Monday, August 30, 2004

 

Dispatch shows Kerry-Bush dead heat, trouble for Bush

Sunday's Dispatch now has the race at a virtual dead heat. Check it quick before it goes to the pay-per-view archives. The Dispatch's mail ballot survey methodology always raises eyebrows but has a good track record. With a large sample (3,000+) there is a small margin of error (2%). Here are the key sections - keep in mind that the Dispatch had Bush leading Gore by 6 points at this time in 2000:

Bush trend line:

"Bush had a 2-point lead over Kerry in the first Dispatch Poll of the 2004 general-election campaign, published April 4. . ."

"Bush led by 3 points in a Dispatch Poll just before the Democratic National Convention in late July. . ."

Confidence in Bush:

"Only 6 percent of poll participants labeled themselves as undecided. As with the survey a month ago, that group hardly seems poised to vote for Bush: 72 percent say the country is on the wrong track, and 75 percent disapprove of Bush’s handling of the economy (compared with 54 percent of all respondents to both questions).

"Other danger signs for Bush: His approval ratings are at the same modest levels as in July. Also, Kerry holds a 12-point lead among independents. . ."

Even good news for senate candidate Eric Fingerhut:

"The survey also shows that Democrat Eric D. Fingerhut has moved to within shouting distance of U.S. Sen. George V. Voinovich. The former GOP governor, forecast for an easy victory by most political observers, has a 14-point lead over Fingerhut, a modestly funded state senator from Cleveland. Voinovich held a 21-point advantage over Fingerhut in the July poll, but Fingerhut’s walk across Ohio has been generating publicity in several local media outlets during the past couple of weeks."

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