Thursday, September 30, 2004

 

Kerry has significant margin over Bush in Ohio, says Gallup numbers

A new Gallup poll released this morning shows Kerry now has the larger margin in Ohio. The poll, conducted Sept. 25-28, shows the Registered Voters currently prefer Kerry over Bush by a 50-46 margin.

This is a huge shift from Gallup's last Ohio matchup (Sept. 4-7) that gave Bush a 48-47 margin over Kerry among RV's

READER SPIN ALERT: In the last Gallup poll, many newspapers and editors only focused on Gallup's Likely Voter results that, I argue, are very inaccutate at this point and subject to much change. All we heard about then was the Bush had a 8 point margin over Kerry (52-44) with no mention that the RV results showed a virtual tie. Call your newspapers NOW and insist that they use the Registered Voter numbers.

Even more intriguing about this poll is that Gally has been the subject of some very tough and pointed criticism about its polling methods and weighting. MoveOn.org did a great full page add about the subject and others such as Ruy Teixeira have given the topic a thorough review. My point, here, is that given these criticisms Gallup may even be undermeasuring Kerry support.

UPDATE: This poll was done of 802 RVs, MoE = 4%

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