Saturday, September 18, 2004


Plain Dealer shows increased lead for Bush

(My bad with original headline. Deep unconscious longings)

Let me vent first: I don't have a way to get a print copy of the Plain Dealer and the paper's web site is horrible. It is difficult to navigate, nothing is intuitive, links ofter are screwed up and it, hands down, has the worst archive system of any major US newspaper. Even its own reporters have trouble getting archived stories. Really, the terms "archive" and "stories in the past 14 days" are oxymoronic. Doug Clifton and Knight-Ridder can do better.

Therefore my discussions of the PD poll will have to be short and qualified.

In brief it appears to show some bad news. It was conducted Sept. 10-14, of 1,500 registered voters. Here are the raw results:

Bush: 50
Kerry: 42
Nader: 2
Undecided: 9
(MoE: ±2.6%)

Now, its hard to figure out what to make of the poll conducted by Mason-Dixon, hired by the PD. Back in May, when nearly every poll showed Kerry either even or with a lead, the PD/Mason-Dixon showed this bizarre set of numbers:

Bush: 47
Kerry: 41
Nader: 3
Undecided: 9
(MoE: ±2.6%)

So, while it appears that there may be some methodology problems in how M-D does its work, it nevertheless appears to show a trend that Bush's numbers are growing.

The Kerry campaign, according to the PD, is upset with how the polling sample with created, but I haven't been able to find the details of that.

I also suspect the experts will come out with more of a critique in the next day or two.


<< Home

This page is powered by Blogger. Isn't yours?