Thursday, September 09, 2004


Problems in latest Gallup Ohio poll?

Gallup's most recent internal poll numbers about the matchup in Ohio are good news for Kerry. They reported that the convention bounce gave Bush only a 48-47 result among registered voters. A lot of experts, though were scratching their heads about Gallup's "likely voters" results that showed a sharply higher lead of 52-44.

Professor Alan Abramowitz of Emory University, a top academic political analysts, however says here that this could only happen if Gallup is assumming that 90 percent of Bush supporters will vote but only 78 percent of Kerry's.

"[T]his seems way out of line with evidence from previous elections and with other polls."

In fact, a 90 percent turnout of Kerry supporters and a 78 percent for Bush's feels about right, but that's just my opinion.

Abramowitz has more on the "turnout gap" here.

Will any Ohio reporters mention any of this?


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