Thursday, October 21, 2004


ABC polls shows strength for Kerry, Issue 1 defeat

Yesterday we made some mention of the new ABC poll on Ohio, but failed to give the results. Shame on us, because there is lots of good data here. The poll was conducted Oct. 14-17 of 789 Likely Voters in Ohio but failed to give the results. Here they are:

Kerry - 50%
Bush - 47%
Undecided/Other - 3%
MoE - 3.5%

Independents split in favor of Kerry 52 percent to 44 percent. Union voters favor Kerry by 27 points. ABC notes that union voters made up 36 percent of the Ohio electorate in 2000.

Regarding issues, the poll showed the Economy was the biggest issue in Ohio, with nearly twice as much concern about the Economy over the next highest issue, terrorism. Here is the ranking:

Economy/Jobs -33%
Terrorism - 18
Iraq - 17
Health Care - 13
Education - 5
Other - 12

The are many other points that could be made, but what caught our eye is this: The poll also showed that the fight of Issue 1 in Ohio (that would ban gay marriage) is very tight at 48 for, 45 against.

This is a wonderful, remarkable turnaround. Early predictions had Issue 1 winning by a 2-to-1 margin. Now its a dead heat. Actually, the opposition to Issue 1 would be AHEAD if the moderate Republicans and business community had any guts. When Gov. Taft comes out against Issue 1, but only issues a press release and then runs off to Asia, it's called token support.

There seems to be no serious advertising effort against Issue 1, yet its a horse race.

We are ahead on Kerry, and Issue 1 can be defeated, too. It's time for Ohioans to start talking to their neighbors and media about how defeating Issue 1 is crucial to keeping Ohio in the 21st Century.


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