Thursday, October 07, 2004


AP: Kerry takes lead with LVs, tied with RVs

In my opinion, we are moving into the phase where Likely Voter polling is starting to be more accurate than Registered Voters. There is not exact science here. We are dealing with a continuum where at one end, far from election day, Registered Voter polls are more accurate and on the other end, at or near election day, Likely Voter polling is more accurate.

Where we are on that continuum is guesswork that, in my experience, depends on how far from election day we are, how many undecided voters there are, and what the likelyhood is of a major event that could cause another swing among votes (like the first debate). So, given that we still have two debates to go and some opportunities for other surprises (bad jobs numbers, bin Laden capture, etc.) but less than four weeks away from the election, I think that both the RV and LV results have to be discounted somewhat.

Having said that, the new AP poll confirms the upward arc of Kerry support with a lead outside the Margin of Error. The hust completed poll was conducted Oct. 4-6 of 944 Likely Voters:

Kerry - 50%
Bush - 46%
MoE - 3%

This same poll put the candidates at 47-47 among Registered Voters. Either way, the trend is great news, especially when coupled with the Survey USA and Zogby results for Ohio.


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