Thursday, October 28, 2004


Great Ohio news from LA Times, Zogby

Two more polls confirm that Kerry is either edging into the lead in Ohio or on a trend to take the lead. First, the LA Times Oct. 26 poll of 585 Likely Voters in Ohio. The comparison to the LA Times Aug. 23 poll is in parentheses. Hold on to your hat!

Kerry - 50% (44)
Bush - 44% (49.3)
Undecided/Unknown - 6% (6.7)
MoE - 4%

Yes, that's a 6 point margin with an MoE of 4. In professional terms, that's called a LEAD. And that's a 11.3 point shift in their relative positions. But, we have a nagging suspicion that this is probably overly optimistic, a statistical outlier. Polling over the next few days should confirm or refute this.

Other key LA Times indicators:
Bush's job performance: Disapprove - 51% (ouch)
Bush's performance on the economy: Disapprove - 54% (ouch)
Country is moving in on: The right track - 36% The the wrong track - 36 (double ouch)
Kerry leads by about 20 percentage points when Ohio voters are asked which man is better suited to strengthen the economy, create jobs or handle healthcare. By nearly 2 to 1, Ohio voters say Bush's policies have hurt, rather than helped, the economy.

[. . .]While Bush leads Kerry in both states on handling terrorism, a narrow plurality of Ohio voters say Kerry is more likely to develop a plan for success in Iraq and is more qualified to serve as commander in chief.

And while a 49% to 44% plurality in Florida say the situation in Iraq "was worth going to war over," a 50% to 44% majority in Ohio say the opposite.
Meanwhile, Zogby's Oct. 27 Ohio poll shows a positive trend:

Kerry - 46.3%
Bush - 44.7%
Other/Unknown - 10%
MoE - 4.1%

So, Kerry's margin is within the MoE, but look at the trend from Zogby:

-------Oct. 18---Oct 24---Oct 27
Kerry 47.8% ---42.2% ---46.3%
Bush 50.7% ----47.2% ---44.7%

As in other polls, Kerry is bouncing around. But, Bush's numbers are on a clear downward trend, and if nothing else, they appear to confirm his inability to climb above 47%.

Expect to see more analysis on this at Donkey Rising and Swing State Project.


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