Sunday, October 03, 2004

 

Jobs situation underreported in Ohio by nearly 180,000 - Part 2

This is a continuation of the previous post

POPULATION GROWTH AND JOBS

One area that has received absolutely no attention by the Ohio media is the worsening jobs situation cause by population growth. The dynamic of population growth on the jobs picture has received occasional coverage by the national media. Some have nailed the issue by noting that Bush needs to grow the number of jobs by something like 125,000 a month just to keep up with the number of new workers entering the labor market.

This same dynamic is very much a factor in Ohio, but no one has touched this issue: The number of jobs needs to keep growing in Ohio to keep up with the growth in the working-age population.

Here are the numbers. According to ODJFS's Labor Market Information "Employment Situation Indicators" reports:

Aug 2004 Working Age Population: 8,815,000
Jan 2001 Working Age Population: 8,637,000
Difference: 178,000

This 178,000 number is initially too high. Only about two-thirds of the total working age population is actively a part of the labor force at any given time. This is because about one-third are not part of the labor force by choice, by disability or by hopelessness.

So, we get a more accurate number by reducing the 178,000 by a third which gives us a number of about 118,700 additional Ohioans have joined the civilian labor force since Bush took office.

Therefore, the most accurate description of the jobs situation in Ohio is to note that ther is a "shortfall" of jobs that is currently about 407,200 (118,700 + 288,500).

Damn. Sometimes when ya want things done right, ya gotta do it yourself.

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