Sunday, October 31, 2004


New Columbus Dispatch poll: Tie with momentum Kerry's

After the controversy surrounding their previous poll in which the editors seemed to have written off Kerry and any possible bounce for him from the debates, the Columbus Dispatch today announced that their latest poll showed a dead heat, but with very good strength for Kerry. We present an extend quote from this survey because, for unknown reasons, it is not available online yet:

UPDATE: Poll is how online here
How close is the matchup? Kerry leads by a mere eight votes of 2,880 ballots returned in the mail survey - the tightest margin ever in a final Dispatch poll.

[. . . ] Kerry has surged from a 7 percentage-point deficit into a tie. And several signs indicate that the Massachusetts senator has gained the momentum in Ohio. Kerry is ahead by 14 points among independent voters. He has a narrow lead in northwestern Ohio, the state's most reliable bellwether media market. And he has brought black voters home, gaining 91 percent support among black respondents.

Meanwhile, the poll contains troubling signs for Bush. Only 44 percent say things in the nation are headed in the right direction. Fewer than half approve of his handling in Iraq and the economy. And his overall approval rating is 49 percent, a measure that many political experts say represents a ceiling of his support Tuesday.

But this election is so close in Ohio that the winner will be determined by which side gets its voters to the polls Tuesday, and by how the public perceives such late-breaking developments as the newly released video of Osama bin Laden. Perhaps the biggest question - aside from the effect of possible Election Day challenges at polling places - is how many of Ohio's 1 million newly registered voters will cast ballots.

These newbies now represent one in eight Ohio voters, and they support Kerry by a nearly to 2-1 margin in the poll.
The Dispatch says its poll has a Margin of Error of 2%.


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