Friday, October 15, 2004


Rasmussen has small margin for Bush

Rasmussen has released its new Ohio poll, which, like their previous recent polls, has Bush with a small margin. The poll was conducted October 7-13 (i.e., prior to the last debate) of 564 Likely Voters:

Bush - 49%
Kerry - 47%
Other - 1%
Not Sure - 3%
MoE - not mentioned

Two weeks ago Rasmussen had it 48-47, so there is not much trend info that's can be extracted from this data. But other Rasmussen data does suggest trends. For example, while Bush's favorability rating rose 1 point to 54%, Kerry's rose 3 points to 53%. More importantly, Bush's job approval ratings are going down, while Kerry's voters are getting increasingly firm:
The President's Job Approval is currently at 50% in Ohio. That's down from 53% two weeks ago.

Ninety-three percent (93%) of Bush voters in the state say they are "certain" they will vote for the President. That's little changed from two weeks ago. However, among Kerry voters, 89% are now that certain, Two weeks ago, just 79% are that certain.


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