Thursday, October 21, 2004


Rasmussen shows a dead heat

The Oct. 12-18 Rasmussen poll of Likely Voters shows a slight drop off in the margin of Bush leaving a numerical tie, compared to its Oct. 6 poll (in parenthesis):

Kerry - 47% (47)
Bush - 47% (49)
Undecided/Other - 5%
MoE - 2.2

Other issues of note:
- Bush favorobility rating dropped from 54% to 51%, but Kerry's also dropped, from 53% to 49%.
- Bush's Job Approval is currently at 51%. It was 53% before the debates began.
- 93% of Bush voters are "certain" they will vote for the President. That number hasn't changed for quite a while, but . . .
- 84% of Kerry voters are now "certain" they will vote for him. That's up from 79% from before the first debate.

This supports the MysterPollsters analysis using the "Incumbent Rule" that asserts that Bush's numbers are "frozen" at 47%, while Kerry's fluctuate as the undecideds slowly make up their mind - and these are going with Kerry.


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