Monday, October 18, 2004

 

Republican pollster has Kerry lead in Ohio

A few days ago we had a post about a story in the Boca Raton newspaper that indicated that the Republican polling firm Strategic Visions confessed that Kerry got a 5 point boost in Ohio from the last debate.

But, at the time, SV didn't release the exact numbers to the public. They still haven't, but thanks to Race 2000.net, it's fairly easy to construct the numbers.

Race 2004.net shows that SV's last public poll numbers in Ohio came from Oct. 11 that showed this:
Bush - 51%
Kerry - 43%
Nader - 1.0%
MoE - 3%
Not category of "other" or undecided was mentioned, but clearly must be about 5%.

Keeping Nader's numbers and the other/undecided numbers constant, a five point lift for Kerry looks like this:

Bush - 46%
Kerry - 48%
Nader - 1
Other/Undecided - 5%

I think it's fairly obvious why the new SV numbers haven't been released.

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