Friday, July 08, 2005

 

Mystery Pollster explain mysterious new Ohio polls

We've been mentally wrestling and talking with others this week over what to do about a "poll" on the Ohio governor's race that recently showed up on a right-wing blog, Polipundit. It was posted as a blind poll with no attribution, background, date, etc. We also thought it was somewhat odd for a Republican blog to be giving eye-time to a poll that purportedly showed that the three blind mice (Petro, Montgomery & Blackwell) we're trailing Strickland and Coleman.

We wondered, is this poll bogus? Is it worth posting about given the lack of information? Is there some aspect of the information that we are missing that would be a tip-off as to whether this thing is real or not.

In an attempt to resolve this conundrum, a friend of ours reached out to Mark Blumenthal, the infamous Mystery Pollster, who has labored tirelessly since last fall to explain the ins, outs and nuances of polling to the masses. This saintly mystery man agreed to take a look at this quirky governor's poll and attempt to pass judgement on it's authenticity.

Instead of giving us a quick thumbs up or down on the Polipundit matter, Mark created a detailed post called "When is a poll not a poll?" It's full of cautionary approaches and bullshit detection methods that everyone who likes to follow the polls should become familiar with.

Mark also dissects another Ohio poll that purports to show how Sherrod Brown would do in a Senate race.

Really good stuff - so read it!

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