Sunday, November 06, 2005

 

Dispatch Poll: Issue 2 & 3 pass, 5 a toss-up and 4 losing*

(* but with 25% still undecided.)

Call us hopeless Pollyannas, but we are still pretty happy with the results from the latest Dispatch poll.

First some comments before going into the poll results: Bob Bennett and the GOP are shitting bricks at this point. Anything less than the full defeat of all of the RON amendments is bad news. Even the passage of Issue 2 is a referendum on the business-as-usual crowd at the Statehouse. Add on the passage of Issue 3 and it's an enormous blow at the corporate power, campaign funding and the pay-to-play games - not to mention the political embarassment of a major rebuke to the morons that pass for political leaders in this state. Add to that close votes on either 4 or 5, and the Republicans will be scrambling. And, if either 4 or 5 passes, we are well on our way to a full-scale rout of incumbents in 2006.

Now to the guts of this. The Dispatch poll shows that the scenario on Nov. 8 will be Issues 2 & 3 passing, a close vote on Issue 5 and possibly a close vote on Issue 4. They also show that the huge television ad buys by the anti-RON group Ohio First has moved some voters from the undecided ranks - but not nearly enough yet to tip the scales significantly.

In other words, even after encountering an enormous storm of bullshit, Issue 2 and 3 are still standing strong, Issue 5 is a dead heat and too many voters are still undecided about Issue 4 to call that race.

The common wisdom is that a large percentage of the undecideds just won't vote in an off-year election. The big exception to that may occur in the big cities where the mayoral races will draw hordes of Democrats.

We also think that a major unknown factor is the enthusiasm of the "No" voters. It's clear to us that the "Yes" votes are coming from an fired-up, committed crowd. Beyond the particular language of the amendments, these are the folks that want to, if nothing else, send a message about their revulsion of the money, corruption and cronyism that drenches Ohio's politics.

More to the point, we know from a lot of anecdotes that we've heard from reliable sources that many of the No voters are doing it along party lines and not because they feel particularly strongly about 1) the issues, or 2) voting at all in this election.

Still, given the amount and decibels of the outlandish lies spread by the anti-RON camp and given the apparently overwhelming support for Issue 3, we'll gladly bat .500 with a near grand slam in our first game in the major leagues.

Here how things stack up from the poll sent to 1,872 registered voters with an MOE of 2.5%. (The results from the Dispatch's Oct. 1 poll are in parentheses.)
Issue 2
Yes - 59% (68)
No - 33% (28)
Undecided - 9% (7)

Issue 3
Yes - 61% (70)
No - 25% (15)
Undecided - 14% (15)

Issue 4
Yes - 31% (28)
No - 45% (38)
Undecided - 25% (36)

Issue 5
Yes - 41% (42)
No - 43% (37)
Undecided - 16% (20)

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