Tuesday, June 13, 2006


Reporters ignoring Blackwell polling lies?

More needs to be said about the polling falsehoods that the official Blackwell for Governor campaign has been peddling, and the free pass that the press corps has given them on this matter at least as far back as May 25.

On that date, the Kenny and his BfG issued a press release that stated:
The University of Cincinnati Ohio Poll released today shows Republican gubernatorial nominee Ken Blackwell significantly closing the gap on his Democrat opponent, Congressman and former psychologist Ted Strickland.
That is a lie. The Univ. of Cincinnati researchers who conducted the Ohio Poll said nothing about Blackwell "significantly closing the gap" and for good reason: the assertion would have been a falsehood and the pollsters would have become disgraced in their profession.

It should go without saying by now, especially among the press corps - who are supposed to know a thing or two about such matters - that differences in polling methods make detailed poll comparisons a fools errand. That is, it's a fools errand unless if one is doing it purposely. Then it's a lie.

This isn't to say that some general comparisons among polls can't be made. Indeed they can. For example, when 9 separate polls (we actually understated the number in our previous post) conducted by 4 separate and independent organizations show Strickland winning a preference among voters that is significantly greater than the margin-of-error, than we can say with near certainty that Strickland has a lead over Blackwell.

And, most long-time political historians and experts will note that since only Strickland has managed to pass the 50% level of support, the aggragate data suggests that Kenny and the BfG have serious problems with the electorate.

All this isn't to suggest that either Strickland has the race wrapped up or that Kenny's campaign is washed up. On the contrary, the race will certainly tighten as Bob Bennett tries to transform KB from right wing nutjob and pet pol of the Christocrats into a flip-flopping moderate.

But it is to suggest that it is one thing for the wingnut blogs to spew whatever and another for reporters to let the Blackwell for Governor folks to get away with it.


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