Tuesday, October 24, 2006


No magic left for GOP?

There continues to be very little difference in the vote estimate derived from all registered voters and the estimate among likely voters only. This suggests that at this point in the election cycle the Republicans do not have the distinct turnout advantage that they have enjoyed in the last three midterm elections.

. . .

The current 15-point Democratic lead among registered voters remains among the largest Democrat leads on any Gallup poll conducted since the Republicans won majority power in the U.S. House of Representatives in 1994.

. . .

But at this time, there does not appear to be a significant turnout advantage for the GOP. Gallup estimates that if the election were held today there would be little difference in the results among those who actually turned out to vote compared to the larger pool of all registered voters. (Of course, if all of the GOP's turnout effort is concentrated in the last 72 hours of the campaign, then its impact might not yet be visible in current polling.)

The margin among likely voters is only two points different than the margin among all registered voters. This is similar to the pattern found in the early October USA Today/Gallup poll, in which there was


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