Tuesday, June 13, 2006

 

Rasmussen data exposes weakness of GOP damage control

Bob Bennett and the GOP are apparently having a full blown conniption over the SurveyUSA results. But, this is a classic case of "look here, but don't look there." Yes, SurveyUSA's methodology gets questioned a lot, but big fucking whoop since at least 8 other polls show Strickland with a substantial lead over Blackwell.

In particular, these guys are terrified that conscientious reporters might notice that the 5 Rasmussen polls - the only set of polls that accurately allow a time/trend analysis - show things are likely getting worse for Blackwell, not better.

And since pictures speak louder, etc. we provide the following chart to illustrate our point:

Rasmussen polling trend Ohio governors race

Yes, like all polls, its still a snapshot yet it still pretty much documents why reporters should confront Bennett and Blackwell about why they are such deceptive shits.

 

Reporters ignoring Blackwell polling lies?

More needs to be said about the polling falsehoods that the official Blackwell for Governor campaign has been peddling, and the free pass that the press corps has given them on this matter at least as far back as May 25.

On that date, the Kenny and his BfG issued a press release that stated:
The University of Cincinnati Ohio Poll released today shows Republican gubernatorial nominee Ken Blackwell significantly closing the gap on his Democrat opponent, Congressman and former psychologist Ted Strickland.
That is a lie. The Univ. of Cincinnati researchers who conducted the Ohio Poll said nothing about Blackwell "significantly closing the gap" and for good reason: the assertion would have been a falsehood and the pollsters would have become disgraced in their profession.

It should go without saying by now, especially among the press corps - who are supposed to know a thing or two about such matters - that differences in polling methods make detailed poll comparisons a fools errand. That is, it's a fools errand unless if one is doing it purposely. Then it's a lie.

This isn't to say that some general comparisons among polls can't be made. Indeed they can. For example, when 9 separate polls (we actually understated the number in our previous post) conducted by 4 separate and independent organizations show Strickland winning a preference among voters that is significantly greater than the margin-of-error, than we can say with near certainty that Strickland has a lead over Blackwell.

And, most long-time political historians and experts will note that since only Strickland has managed to pass the 50% level of support, the aggragate data suggests that Kenny and the BfG have serious problems with the electorate.

All this isn't to suggest that either Strickland has the race wrapped up or that Kenny's campaign is washed up. On the contrary, the race will certainly tighten as Bob Bennett tries to transform KB from right wing nutjob and pet pol of the Christocrats into a flip-flopping moderate.

But it is to suggest that it is one thing for the wingnut blogs to spew whatever and another for reporters to let the Blackwell for Governor folks to get away with it.

 

Rod Parsley's world #2: Abstinence official hit in vendor probe

How did this slip under the press corps radar? We followed the story of the Ohio Department of Health's abstinence fuhrer Valerie Huber before but lost track while we were recuperating. However, we just received a tip from a reader that she was suspended a few weeks ago for her conflicts of interest in her dealings with for-profit contractors with DOH.

Glass houses, etc., etc.

More on this tomorrow.

 

Seven in a row: SurveyUSA shows Strickland +16

Poll 6/10 - 6/12 of likely voters show Brown is up, too:
Strickland, currently representing Ohio's 6th District in Congress, gets 53%. Blackwell, currently Ohio Secretary of State, gets 37%.

Strickland gets 89% of Democrat votes. Blackwell gets 72% of Republican votes. 20% of Republicans cross over and vote for the Democrat.

Independents prefer Democrat Strickland by 19 points. Strickland leads by 4 among men and by 27 among women, a 23-point Gender Gap. Blackwell runs even with Strickland among voters under age 35, and in Western Ohio.

. . .

Brown, who represents Ohio's 13th District in Congress, wins by 9 points, 48% to 39%
The cross tabs also show Strickland with a stunning 48% lead among "moderates" and that he is doing as well with wooing "conservative voters" (22%) as Blackwell is with "black voters" (21%). Strickland also leads or runs even with Blackwell in all education, income, region, age, and gender groupings.

This good news comes after positive polls by the Plain Dealer (April 24-26), Rasmussen (Feb. 19, March 31, April 25 and May 18) and Ohio Poll (May 25).

We wonder how this news is going to wash with the lies, damned lies and statistics trolls.

 

Marc Dann wins round 2

OSC demands to see Taft documents.

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